The world in 2020

Some months ago I received a study prepared by global PwC human services office. It’s called “Managing tomorrow people”. I enjoy reading forecasts for a future state of the world, especially if they are connected with human capital, so my attention was caught straight away! Today I’ve gone through it one more time and got anxious to share those ideas in the blog.

So the main idea is the following: there are several scenarios of how the world will be developing till 2020. According to scientists, all scenarios lie in 2 planes: collectivism vs individualism and fragmentation vs integration. Crossing those 2 lines gives us 3 worlds: Blue, Green and Orange.

What a research team does next is describe each of the scenarios in details: principles of living in such a world, major facts and figures in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2020 AND people strategy focus within these conditions.

Lets see scenarios closer:

The Blue World.

The globalisers take centre stage, consumer preference dominates, a corporate career separates the haves from the have nots.

I guess this is the state which early stages are quite noticeable nowadays in world’s business cities.

So what will be the role of people strategy if this scenario dominates in 2020?
Some of the points are:

• The Chief People Officer (CPO) is a powerful and influential figure, sometimes known as the ‘Head of People and Performance’ who sits on the leadership board.
• Metrics and data are used to drive business performance through complex staff segmentation strategies which identify thousands of skills sets – creating precision around sourcing the right candidates for the right tasks as well as on the job performance measurement and assessment.
• People are graded and profiled at the age of 16 and categorized for work suitability both in terms of capability and individual preference.

Under this scenario HR function becomes similar to finance as it requires sophisticated analytical approach to measuring people’s performance and connecting it to business results.

The Green World.

Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green sense of responsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority. Society and business see their agenda align.

This is the scenario that some authentic organizations currently strive for, trying to attract attention of the other side of the business world.
How does HR function evolve under this scenario?

• The CEO drives the people strategy for the organisation, believing that the people in the organisation and their behaviours and role in society have a direct link to the organisation’s success or failure. The CEO works closely with the Head of People and Society (HPS) who, with a team comprising a mix of HR, marketing, corporate social responsibility and data specialists, drives the social responsibility programme.
• The common belief is that employees choose employers who appear to match their beliefs and values. The reality is that the talent pool for the brightest and best remains competitive, and whilst CSR rankings are a factor, the overall incentive package remains all important. Incentives however are not just reward-related; for example, they include paid secondments to work for social projects and needy causes – a popular trend post-2010.
• Society fully focus on sustainability issues; talent management and realizing people’s potential for the good of the world drive corporate responsibility agenda of organizations.

The Orange world.

Global businesses fragment, localism prevails, technology empowers a low impact, high-tech business model. Networks prosper while large companies fall.

Communities and networks are being developed with a huge speed. Belonging to the one is one of the key success factors of being up-to-date and on top of global events. Yet I suppose that this tendency is not so much close to work related issues, that’s why its influence seems to be undervalued at present. So what can we expect HR function to become in case we get in 2020 Orange World?

• People strategy is replaced with sourcing strategy, as maintaining the optimum supply chain of people is key to this networked world. The People Sourcing Director liaises with expertise networks and guilds to attract what they need for the best price.
• People are more likely to see themselves as members of a particular skill or professional network than as an employee of a particular company. Specialization is highly prized and workers seek to develop the most sought after specialist skills to command the biggest reward package.
• In this world business is represented as small enterprises focusing on particular area in the supply chain. People function is divided into in-house HR who is responsible for sourcing specialists and outsourcing HR – guilds – that organize education and development of members of particular networks.

So these are the 3 scenarios shown in the study. On the last pages research team combines all of them in the table and gives a brief analysis of similarities and differences.

Most possible state of the world in 2020 is likely to be a mixture of 3 scenarios, though each of those can dominate in specific industry sectors and countries. But the main question is: “In which world do you want to live in 2020?"